Friday, 28 September 2012

Qatar: Rich and Dangerous

'The first concern of the Emir of Qatar is the prosperity and security of the tiny kingdom.  To achieve that, he knows no limits.


Stuck between Iran and Saudi Arabia is Qatar with the third largest natural gas deposit in the world.  The gas gives the nearly quarter of a million Qatari citizens the highest per capita income on the planet and provides 70 percent of government revenue.  

How does an extremely wealthy midget with two potentially dangerous neighbors keep them from making an unwelcomed visit?  Naturally, you have someone bigger and tougher to protect you.  

Of course, nothing is free.  The price has been to allow the United States to have two military bases in a strategic location.  According to Wikileak diplomatic cables, the Qataris are even paying sixty percent of the costs.

Having tanks and bunker busting bombs nearby will discourage military aggression, but it does nothing to curb the social tumult that has been bubbling for decades in the Middle Eastern societies.  Eighty-four years ago, the Moslem Brotherhood arose in Egypt because of the presence of foreign domination by Great Britain and the discontent of millions of the teaming masses yearning to be free.  Eighty-four years later, the teaming masses are still yearning.  

Sixty-five percent of the people in the Middle East are under twenty-nine years of age.  It is this desperate angry group that presents a danger that armies cannot stop.  The cry for their dignity, "I am a man," is the sound that sends terror through governments.  It is this overwhelming force that the Emir of Qatar has been able to deflect.

A year after he deposed his father in 1995, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani established the Al-Jazeera television satellite news network.  He invited some of the radical Salafi preachers that had been given sanctuary in Qatar to address the one and a half billion Moslems around the world.  They had their electronic soapbox and the card to an ATM, but there was a price. 

The price was silence.  They could speak to the world and arouse the fury in Egypt or Libya, but they would have to leave their revolution outside of Qatar or the microphone would be switched off and the ATM would stop dispensing the good life.

The Moslem Brotherhood, that is a major force across the region, dissolved itself in Qatar in 1999.  Jasim Sultan, a member of the former organization, explained that the kingdom was in compliance with Islamic law.  He heads the state funded Awaken Project that publishes moderate political and philosophical literature.

How Qatar has benefited from networking with the Salafis is illustrated by the connections with Tunisia where Qatar is making a large investment in telecommunications.  Tunisian Foreign Minister Rafiq Abdulsalaam was head of the Research and Studies Division in the Al Jazeera Centre in Doha.  His father-in-law Al Ghanouchi is the head of the Tunisian Muslim Brotherhood party. 

Over much of the time since he seized power, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani has followed the policy of personal networking, being proactive in business and neutral on the international stage.  The Emir is generous with the grateful, the Qatar Sovereign Wealth Fund bargains hard in the board room and the kingdom makes available Qatar's Good Offices to resolve disputes.  

Qatar's foreign policy made an abrupt shift when the kingdom entered the war against Qaddafi.  The kingdom sent aircraft to join NATO forces.  On the ground, Qatari special forces armed, trained, and led Libyans against Qaddafi's troops.  

The head of the National Transition Council Mustafa Abdul Jalil attributed much of the success of the revolution to the efforts of Qatar that he said had spent two billion dollars.  He commented, "Nobody traveled to Qatar without being given a sum of money by the government."

Qatar had ten billion dollars in investments in Libya to protect.  The Barwa Real Estate Company alone had two billion committed to the construction of a beach resort near Tripoli.  

While the bullets were still flying, Qatar signed eight billion dollars in agreements with the NTC.  Just in case things with the NTC didn't work out, they financed rivals Abdel Hakim Belhaj, leader of the February 17 Martyr's Brigade, and Sheik Ali Salabi, a radical cleric who had been exiled in Doha.  

If Qatar's investments of ten billion dollars seem substantial, the future has far more to offer.  Reconstruction costs are estimated at seven hundred billion dollars.  The Chinese and Russians had left behind between them thirty billion in incomplete contracts and investments and all of it is there for the taking for those who aided the revolution. 

No sooner had Qaddafi been caught and shot, Qatar approached Bashar Al-Assad to establish a transitional government with the Moslem Brotherhood.  As you would expect, relinquishing power to the Brotherhood was an offer that he could refuse.  It didn't take long before he heard his sentence pronounced in January 2012 on the CBS television program, 60 Minutes by Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani.

The Emir declared that foreign troops should be sent into Syria.  At the Friends of Syria conference in February, Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani said, "We should do whatever necessary to help [the Syrian opposition], including giving them weapons to defend themselves."  

Why would Qatar want to become involved in Syria where they have little invested?  A map reveals that the kingdom is a geographic prisoner in a small enclave on the Persian Gulf coast.

It relies upon the export of LNG, because it is restricted by Saudi Arabia from building pipelines to distant markets.  In 2009, the proposal of a pipeline to Europe through Saudi Arabia and Turkey to the Nabucco pipeline was considered, but Saudi Arabia that is angered by its smaller and much louder brother has blocked any overland expansion. 

Already the largest LNG producer, Qatar will not increase the production of LNG.  The market is becoming glutted with eight new facilities in Australia coming online between 2014 and 2020. 

A saturated North American gas market and a far more competitive Asian market leaves only Europe.  The discovery in 2009 of a new gas field near Israel, Lebanon, Cyprus, and Syria opened new possibilities to bypass the Saudi Barrier and to secure a new source of income.  Pipelines are in place already in Turkey to receive the gas.  Only Al-Assad is in the way.

Qatar along with the Turks would like to remove Al-Assad and install the Syrian chapter of the Moslem Brotherhood.  It is the best organized political movement in the chaotic society and can block Saudi Arabia's efforts to install a more fanatical Wahhabi based regime.  Once the Brotherhood is in power, the Emir's broad connections with Brotherhood groups throughout the region should make it easy for him to find a friendly ear and an open hand in Damascus.

A control centre has been established in the Turkish city of Adana near the Syrian border to direct the rebels against Al-Assad.  Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Abdullah al-Saud asked to have the Turks establish a joint Turkish, Saudi, Qatari operations center.  "The Turks liked the idea of having the base in Adana so that they could supervise its operations" a source in the Gulf told Reuters.

The fighting is likely to continue for many more months, but Qatar is in for the long term.  At the end, there will be contracts for the massive reconstruction and there will be the development of the gas fields.  In any case, Al-Assad must go.  There is nothing personal; it is strictly business to preserve the future tranquility and well-being of Qatar.'

Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Qatar-Rich-and-Dangerous.html 

By Felix Imonti for Oilprice.com




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Thursday, 27 September 2012

"Nine regulatory must-haves when choosing a DFM"

http://www.portfolio-adviser.com/news/regulation/nine-reg-must-haves-choosing-dfm

 

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Wednesday, 26 September 2012

Rajoy soundinke like Cristina Fernandez, desperate and thrashing around for a political straw

Rajoy

http://www.el-nacional.com/mundo/Rajoy-Gibraltar-perdido-demasiados-anos_0_51594939.html 

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Tuesday, 18 September 2012

India : Slump in FDI flows forces volte-face on rules / GAAR

Foreign investors now have a window of opportunity over the next two years to pour money into projects they wish to establish in India using the same elaborate cross-border corporate structures, investment trails and other stratagems they have employed since 1991 to avoid having to pay huge taxes on repatriation of profits, and the payment of royalties and dividends.

It has taken just one fortnight for the pieces of the UPA government’s carefully-crafted strategy to fall into place as it tries hard to reassure foreign investors that they will continue to have an easy ride into India — as long as it is in power.

On September 1, the Parthasarathi Shome committee recommended that the dreaded General Anti-Avoidance Rule (GAAR) should be kept in abeyance for the next three years. The government had earlier planned to kick off GAAR from April 1 next year. But at a time when it wants to soothe foreign investors’ fears, it will readily accept the Shome committee’s recommendations — and that means that the next government, formed after the general elections in 2014, will have to grapple with the intricacies of the contentious tax rule.

Source: http://www.telegraphindia.com/1120917/jsp/business/story_15985117.jsp#.UFgnXY3iaPQ

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Monday, 17 September 2012

Libya - Doomed from Day One

People often ask me why the West doesn't attempt a Libya-style intervention in Syria. After all, things are going so well in Libya. Oil production is up. But oil production is merely a mirage, as is security in Libya, which was doomed from the day one PG (post-Gaddafi) because of the way it was "liberated". 


Last Wednesday, US envoy to Libya Christopher Stevens was killed along with three other American diplomats in a rocket attack on the US consulate in Benghazi. 

What about the oil, that global elixir? Well, the violence will not bode well for Libya's production ambitions, coming at a time when the country looked prepared for a boost in output and was banking on this for economic growth. 

Security was already dubious at b est, and now international oil companies will be more reluctant than ever. Those that are already there-Germany's Wintershall AG, Italy's Eni and France's Total-will be seeking to beef up security and have already started sending some of their workers home.

If the picture was not clear from the onset of the post-Gaddafi atmosphere, it certainly came into focus earlier this summer when protests over parliamentary elections forced the temporary closure of the el-Sider oil terminal, the country's biggest.   

Anyone who thinks that Libya will be a secure oil frontier after the formation of a new government next summer is mistaken. The road to destruction runs from Afghanistan to Benghazi (incidentally, the oil-producing region), branching off to southern Iraq and Pakistan's tribal regions. 

So, you ask, what about the controversial anti-Islamic movie apparently put together by an Israeli-American real estate developer with too much time on his hands? 

According to Jellyfish Operations - a private intelligence and analysis boutique that has spent much time dissecting the intervention in Libya and the conflict in Syria-the anti-Islamic movie is a red herring in all of this.

Speaking to Oilprice.com, Jellyfish President Michael Bagley said that while the movie is being upheld as the root cause of the intensifying protests and the death of the US envoy to Libya, it has only served to give added momentum to another more important development. 

"The key to all of this is al-Qaeda's second in command, Abu Yahya al-Libi, who was killed by a US drone attack in Waziristan on 4 June," Bagley said. "The real catalyst for the attack in Libya and the unrest that has spread to Yemen, was a lengthy video released by al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, marking the anniversary of 9/11 and admitting to the death of al-Libi, who is Libyan."

"This was a very powerful call to avenge al-Libi's death," Bagley said, "and it came only 24 hours before the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi." 

To put this into perspective, let's reminisce a bit about al-Libi, whose past is a roller coaster, enemy-foe ride with the US.

Al-Libi was captured in the "war on terrorism" in Afghanistan in 2002 and held for three years in Kabul's high-security Bagram prison. Against all odds, he escaped in 2005.

In 2011 he resurfaced again, but this time as a friend to Washington who had decided that it was no longer friends with Gaddafi, despite all the efforts leading up to this to rebuild relations after that nasty Lockerbie business and all the sanctions. So here is al-Libi again, but this time around his terrorist inclinations are a bonus rather than a liability: He fights alongside intervention forces to oust Gaddafi. 

With Gaddafi gone, al-Libi once again became a liability so he was taken out by a drone in Pakistan.  

This brings us back to the present, with al-Zawahiri on the rampage and Libyan's wise to their liberators. 

"This is a cut and dry example of the backfire of the US intervention strategy," Bagley said. "Let's hope it isn't attempted in Syria." 

The post-Gaddafi Libya is not real. It's a dangerous fabrication of materials stuck together by the glue of dubious alliances with jihadists who are cut loose with their weapons once the immediate goal (Gaddafi's demise) was achieved. Forget about the oil for now. 

 

Source: http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Africa/Libya-Doomed-from-Day-One.html 

By. Jen Alic of Oilprice.com

http://www.investorseurope.com

Wednesday, 12 September 2012

Spain's Economic Nightmare Has Gotten So Bad That Catalonia Wants To Secede

Spain's Economic Nightmare Has Gotten So Bad That Catalonia Wants To Secede

What started out as a celebration that marked marking Catalonia's "National Day" turned into one of the biggest gatherings the city has ever seen.

 

Over a million Catalonians descended upon Barcelona yesterday, protesting current economic conditions, tax policies, and what they see as an unequal distribution of wealth.

Their solution?

"Catalonia: a new European state"

Catalonians have long viewed themselves as culturally distinct from the rest of Spain. They have their own history, traditions, and a distinct language native to their region. But now, the economic climate has driven a huge amount of people to favor full independence.

And even though Catalonia needed a €5 billion bailout package from Madrid last month, it still transfers up to 9 percent of its GDP to Madrid annually.

Source : http://www.businessinsider.com/catalonia-an-independent-state-2012-9#ixzz26GwK0bOB

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The Pauperization Of Europe

The Pauperization Of Europe

'....It started on Monday. “Poverty is returning to Europe,” said Jan Zijderveld, head of Unilever’s European operations, in an interview. The British–Dutch consumer products company, third largest in the world, was adjusting its commercial strategy to this new reality, he said, by redeploying to Europe what worked in poor countries of the developing world. Now the stars of the industry are affirming it. “The logic of pauperization,” L’Oréal CEO Jean-Paul Agon called it on Wednesday.

“If Spaniards are down to spending on average €17 per shopping trip, I can’t sell him detergent for half of his budget,” Zijderveld explained. “In Indonesia we sell individual packages of shampoo for 2 to 3 cents and still earn a fair amount.”

That this strategy was widespread in Asia I found out in Vietnam in 1996. I cut my finger at a table at a café in Hué as we were getting up. So, walking down the dirt street, I licked my finger to keep the blood from dripping on my clothes. The girl I was with, shocked by my barbaric behavior, took me to a street stall and bought me one singled Band-Aid, which cost as close to nothing as you could get. [My overland solo adventure from the Mekong Delta across Asia and Europe is the topic of a forthcoming book. The first in the series, Big Like: Cascade into an Odyssey—a “funny as hell non-fiction book about wanderlust and traveling abroad,” a reader tweeted—is available on Amazon.]

By looking at Europe, particularly Southern Europe, as a market with the characteristics of developing countries, Unilever has transitioned from seeing the debt crisis as a temporary event to seeing it as a trend to which it had to adjust its strategies. So now in Spain, it sells its “Surf” detergent in packages that are good for five loads. In Greece, it sells mashed potatoes and mayonnaise in small packages. And in Great Britain (!), it’s implementing the same strategy. Because people are running out of money. And it’s been successful. Since they started this in 2011, sales have stopped falling; and in the first half of the year, they edged up 1.1%. But higher input prices have exerted pressures on margins and profits.

“I agree, there is a movement of very sharp pauperization in Southern Europe,” Michel-Edouard Leclerc said on Wednesday—they’re now all coming out. He’s the CEO of E.Leclerc, the number one retailer in France with a market share of 18% and 556 semi-independent hypermarkets, supermarkets, and specialty stores. It also has numerous stores in Italy, Spain, Portugal, and other countries. And the company is adjusting to the new reality. In Italy, for example, where the stores used to sell yoghurt only in multipacks, they’ve started to sell them as single items.

Jean-Paul Agon, CEO of L’Oréal, the world’s largest cosmetics and beauty products company, countered with a mixed message. No, the company wouldn’t adjust its products around the growing poverty in Europe, he said. The race to the lowest price was “not our strategy.” Unlike the others, his company wouldn’t follow “the logic of pauperization and commoditization of products.” Rather he wanted to build on “innovation and added value,” which would allow the company to raise prices over time, “but reasonably.”

Which makes sense in light of L’Oréal’s earnings announcement Wednesday morning, a debacle which caused its stock to plummet 4.4%, the second worst performer of the CAC40—due to disappointing margins! Instead of smaller packages, it had tried heavy discounting, Agon admitted, “to adjust our strategy to the environment”—namely the pauperization of Europe. Even L’Oréal.

Meanwhile, a hullabaloo flared up in Germany over squashing democratic discussions on whether or not taxpayers should endlessly pay to keep Greece in the Eurozone. Read.... Gagging The “Hardliners” As The Economy Tanks And Future Exports Drop Into The Red Zone.

 

Source: http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2012/8/29/the-pauperization-of-europe.html

Author : http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/author/wolfrichter

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